Vacation
No updates from me for a little while. Now seems like a good time to take a short break.
Go Tigers!
Uncategorized
No updates from me for a little while. Now seems like a good time to take a short break.
Go Tigers!
UncategorizedYou know it’s summer when the big news in the NHL is the persistent girlfight between Brian Burke and Kevin Lowe. Lowe has managed to stay above the fray for the most part, basically telling the Anaheim GM to:
If Burke would have simply said offer sheets for your restricted free agents fucking suck [this is Burke after all] then he’d have had a pretty symathetic audience. But his continued attacks on Lowe are entertainment worthy of Jerry Springer at their best and more than a bit embarrassing at their worst.
Burke has commented that moves like the offer sheets Lowe proffered to Tomas Vanek and then Dustin Penner have removed a second reasonable contract before a player really hits the prime of his earning years. The most obvious response to that is that exceptional talents like Sid Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Ovechkin were going to be paid large sums of money due to their high level of production.
| Player | Age | Salary |
|
Sid Crosby |
20 | $9 million |
|
Evgeni Malkin |
21 | $9 million |
|
Alexander Ovechkin |
22 | $9 million |
The three players in the chart above averaged right around 100 points each and that was with Crosby missing nearly half the season. Combined they averaged 1.33 points per game. I would argue that the majority of the talent [well, other than Toronto] - regardless of which contract they are playing under - are reasonably compensated for their production. My guess is there are minor amounts of players at either end of the bell curve: some who are grossly underpaid [Henrik Zetterberg, Evgeni Malkin playing on an entry-level contract last season] and some who are grossly overpaid [Thomas Vanek and Todd Bertuzzi].
If anyone should be bitching I’d argue it should be Sabres general manager Darcy Reiger due to the awful offer sheet Lowe put out to Thomas Vanek. Vanek made $10 million last season and produced a grand total of 64 points. This was a case where the offer sheet was poisonous and unfortunately Buffalo, a team that had been just decimated by the departure of UFAs like Chris Drury and Daniel Briere, felt they had to match Edmonton’s offer.
But there are two problems with this line of criticism. The first is the criticism that the team that puts out the offer sheet overvalues the player they are trying to sign. Want a one-word rebuttal?: duh. Going into a little more detail, the RFA offer sheet is something that is very seldom used and is still a bit taboo, although it appears it will become more common under the current CBA and hard salary cap. At least one has been offered thus far, as Vancouver general manager Mike Gillis threw one at David Backes that the St. Louis Blues quickly matched.
So yeah, the RFA offer sheet is almost guaranteed to overvalue the player it targets if it has any chance at being successful. It’s about as straight-forward as saying the best talent in the league is going to be paid as such as early as their second contract.
The other problem with this argument is that Burke was entirely capable of protecting his investment in Dustin Penner. All he had to do was file for salary arbitration and it would have prevented any other team from putting out an offer sheet to Penner.
There were rumors yesterday that the Canucks were preparing to send an offer sheet Valtteri Filppula’s way. Filppula apparently decided he wanted no part of the lovely Pacific Northwest and promptly told his agent to file for salary arbitration.
Penner signed a two-year entry contract with Anaheim on May 12, 2004 at the age of 22. The CBA dictates that he became a RFA after that contract ended. All Anaheim had to do to protect their investment was make a qualifying offer by July 1st and then either the club or Penner could file for salary arbitration.
My guess is Burke’s bluster is designed to deflect attention from the fact he could have very easily prevented the offer sheet to Penner. The Ducks could have certainly used Penner’s 23 goals last season, and if Burke had simply filed for salary arbitration he could have had them for much less than $4.25 million per season.
brian burke kevin lowe Red Wings Valtteri FilppulaLilja’s an insurance policy. If [the younger defensemen are] not quite ready, he can play; if they are ready, then we’ll have to make some decisions on, everybody’s looking for defense. We’re not gonna have any problem if we want to make a trade in training camp. You know, on the defense, we’re talking about, they all make, you know, Lilja’s the highest-paid player at a million-and-a-quarter, everybody and lower, I don’t see that we’re going to have any problem making a deal. Let’s get to training camp, let’s evaluate where we’re at with those kids, and we’re basically, I guess, we’ve deferred to make that decision in September instead of in June.
What does the coach think? Well Malik’s got that link and audio as well. The coach has made it clear he’s a big fan of Ericsson’s play. So if he can win a spot in the lineup there’s a chance another defenseman get’s moved to make room for the Big Rig.
The only word of caution so people like Pete don’t get their hopes up only to have them dashed was that Jakub Kindl purportedly nearly made the team prior to the 2006-07 season. He was sent to Kitchener instead and followed that up with a really rough rookie season in Grand Rapids.
But to heck with that. Stewie can take Lilja’s PK minutes which was the main reason for keeping Lilja in the mix in case Stuart didn’t re-up. If Mike Babcock thinks Ericsson is ready he’ll be in the lineup, likely as a third pairing d-man. If Ericsson only signs a one year deal with the Wings he’ll need to play the lion’s share of the games in Detroit or he’ll become an unrestricted free agent. Reading the tea leaves I think he’ll make the team so long as he wins that spot in training camp.
George has confessed to being an Eagles of Death Metal fan so this Cherry Cola via You Tube’s for you Mr. Malik. And hey, check out Larry Bud Melmen on lead guitar!
That’s an email signature [by way of Virgil] my cousin has used for a little while now and I think it fits the Marian Hossa signing. While fortune favors the bold it don’t guarantee jack. That’s the only thing I find off-putting about the suggestion that next year’s Stanley Cup can be handed to Detroit right now. But be bold and your chances improve and Detroit’s shot at repeating has been given a substantial boost this week.
I still can’t believe it really happened, not with the salary cap in place. Anyways, the A2Y 19 have taken to calling the newest Red Wings Mars as Marian is a descendent of the name given to the God of War. Works for me. So sticking with the antiquity theme here’s Mars Hossa.
If I’m close in my calculations that would put Detroit right around $44.2 million in salary and would give them 12 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies. If the cap stays at $50.2 million the Red Wings clearly don’t have enough money to pay Hossa the $7mm per season he currently makes. Even if the cap rises by a couple million dollars, the Red Wings will need to pay Henrik Zetterberg north of $6mm per season starting in 2009-10. So signing Hossa [to a long-term deal] just doesn’t seem feasible.
And here’s what I said recently about the prospect of acquiring him as a free agent:
Finally Ansar suggests that Marian Hossa could be a target for Detroit. I’d love to hear how this conversation goes. In particular I’d like to know how shortly after the Red Wings mention the dollar amount and the term the converstation comes to an abrupt end. So I guess Khan is just throwing out names at this point. Hossa will get a Daniel Briere like contract. Add in the fact Hossa actually has more than a rudimentary grasp of defensive skills like backchecking and he’s obviously worth more than Briere.
I was correct in gauging the market for Hossa’s services as it was reported the Edmonton Oilers were prepared to try and move some salary off the books in order to offer the former Senator, Thrasher and Penguin a nine-year contract in excess of $80 million. It turns out that Hossa was willing to sacrifice close to $75 million in salary today for a shot to get his name etched onto the Stanley Cup. Never let it be said the guy doesn’t have a pretty big set of cojones. That type of sacrifice will serve as motivation for the team as they prepare to defend their title.
Here’s how I see the salary cap situation:
Bill over at A2Y made a great point that Hossa had a chance to audition for the Red Wings back on January 15, just in front of the trade deadline. All he did was score a hat trick against a very solid Detroit defense. That had to have gotten Detroit’s attention. Here are the hightlights.
As far as the lineups go the possibilities are endless. Let’s take a look at some key stats with the help of behind the net and go from there.
Even-strength
Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Hossa
Franzen-Filppula-Holmstrom
Power Play
Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Franzen
Hossa-Hudler-Holmstrom
I also suspect Jiri Hudler will get plenty of opportunity to play on one of the scoring lines during the course of the season. He’d probably fit in really well on the second line playing alongside Johan Franzen and Valtteri Filppula.
There’s little reason to doubt the Red Wings can maintain their spot of allowing the fewest goals against in the NHL. But they’ve put themselves in great shape to outscore every other team in the NHL during the 2008-09 season.
Ken Holland Marian Hossa Red WingsIn trying to wrap my head around the Marian Hossa signing the only thing I can come up with is the NHL video games. In those games when your team scores it’s first goal or two the players on the ice celebrate and high five and hug and do stuff you’d expect them to do. So for me that was the Brad Stuart deal and signing Ty Conklin.
Now back to the video game. In the games where you just destroy the competition and pot your 5th or 6th goal the guys on the ice celebrate by looking down at the ice and engage in sober fist bumps and stuff like that.
That would be the Marian Hossa signing. You just can’t celebrate having that amount of good fortune. You just shake your head, smile wryly and appreciate how things worked out.
Unreal.
I definitely wanted to see the Wings sign Stuart; here is what I said when considering the possibility of him remaining with the team next season:
Brad Stuart…put up 7 points in the playoffs and was +15. Did he have his moments when he got a little outside of his role on the team? No doubt. But with more time in the lineup and playing alongside Niklas Kronwall would likely result in Stuart having his best professional season and the Red Wings defense being quite possibly the best the team has iced during their resurgence that began in the early 90s. That would be kind of nice.
The question was whether he’d return to the west coast or test the free agent waters to try and secure a better payday. I gave it one in three odds on him signing with Detroit and I’m glad to see both sides reach an agreement. Let’s take a closer look at Detroit’s top 4.
Nicklas Lidstrom had one of his best point totals and plus/minus ratings in his career last season.
Brian Rafalski set a career best for goals, tied his career best for points, and had his second best plus/minus rating.
Niklas Kronwall set career marks for goals, assists and plus/minus.
Brad Stuart’s 9 regular season games [a stretch to be sure] extrapolated over a full 82 game season would give him a career best +54.
Right now the Red Wings are in an enviable position of having 10 NHL-ready defensemen. Here is how I see the depth chart looking right now.
Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronwall-Stuart
Lebda-Lilja
Meech-Chelios/Quincey
Ericsson
I wondered the other day whether Ericsson would become a Group 6 free agent and my guess is Holland feels comfortable about the prospects of signing Ericsson to more than a one-year contract extension. If that’s the case he won’t become an unrestricted free agent next season if he doesn’t play at least 72 games for the Red Wings, and would likely result in him spending one more season in Grand Rapids where he will no doubt dominate the AHL. Even if Ericsson heads down to Grand Rapids the Wings will likely need to trade one of their defensemen or will have to put one of them on waivers on the way down to the AHL, where that player would likely be claimed.
I wanted the Red Wings to try and sign Brian Rolston but there’s no way they should have tried to compete with the $20 million for four year offer that New Jersey put up to secure his services. The Red Wings had the third most goals for this past season and were only 5 goals behind league leader Montreal. With Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk being in their prime, and players like Valtteri Fippula, Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall and Jiri Hudler only continuing to improve there’s little reason to expect the goal scoring to drop off much if at all.
Detroit had a serious need for a proven NHL goaltender after Dominik Hasek decided to retire following the season. It was a good call on Dom’s part as he wasn’t dominant this past season, so Holland needed to provide his squad with another solid netminder in order for the team to have a good shot at defending it’s title. I would have liked for Detroit to sign Olaf Kolzig at the $1.5 million he received from the Florida Panthers. With that being said I really question whether he would have accepted being a backup, or signing a two-way contract for that matter although he would have almost assuredly beat out Jimmy Howard for at least the #2 spot. Conklin performed well last season so at least there’s reason to believe he can build off that performance, particularly playing behind the defense Detroit will put on the ice next year.
As far as Valtteri Filppula’s new contract goes, I suspect Detroit is going to leave plenty of cap space in case anyone tries to sign him to an offer sheet. It doesn’t seem likely but Ken Holland has indicated he’d match any offer so he needs to make sure he has the cap space to do so. The lone need Detroit probably has is for a banger/grinder to fill Dallas Drake’s spot in the lineup. That shouldn’t cost too much money to fill.
Brad Stuart Red Wings ty conklin Valtteri FilppulaDue to the salary amount and Lilja’s ability to play both at even-strength and on the PK this was a pretty reasonable signing. The big defenseman tends to look out of place when playing top 4 minutes but is a pretty solid third pairing guy who can also contribute big minutes on the PK.
Lilja was third amongst defensemen in total ice time behind Nick Lidstrom and Chris Chelios [two Norris trophy winners] while skating short-handed. So Detroit’s top four PK’ing defensemen will likely be Lidstrom, Chelios, Lilja and Kronwall. But if Chelios isn’t a regular in the lineup the Red Wings will need another d-man to eat up his short-handed minutes. Lilja has played alongside Lidstrom in short-handed situations so he can easily move into Cheli’s spot while on the PK. Brian Rafalski might draw more PK time on the second pairing in that scenario.
With the news of Andreas Lilja staying in Detroit it also likely signalled that Brad Stuart’s time in Detroit has officially come to an end. Ken Holland was quoted as saying the two sides continue to discuss a contract but at this point it’s entirely reasonable to conclude that Stuart will test the free agent waters. He’s completely entitled to do so and there’s no question he’ll earn more money that route then he would signing in Detroit.
Here’s part of the reason why Ericsson is likely to be the beneficiary of Detroit’s uncertainty at the #4 d-man slot: he could become a Group 6 Free Agent following this season. This is something Matthew Wuest over at Red Wings Central mentioned and I took at look at the collective bargaining agreement. Here’s the pertinent section:
(c) Group 6 Free Agents.
(i) Means any Player who is age 25 or older who has completed three
(3) or more professional seasons, whose SPC has expired and: (i)
in the case of a Player other than a goaltender, has played less than
80 NHL Games…
Ericsson has played two seasons in Grand Rapids and 8 games in Detroit. So at the completion of this upcoming season he’ll be 25 and will have completed three professional seasons. So unless he plays 72 games for Detroit it looks like he would become an unrestricted free agent.
He’s a restricted free agent right now, so I don’t know what the ramifications would be if Detroit signed him to a three-year contract right now but sent him down to Grand Rapids for the full season. Would the final two years be voided and would be become an UFA? That seems unlikely but you can bet that Ericsson and his agent could push the matter by only agreeing to a one-year contract. So I think there’s a good shot Ericsson signs for at least one year but also spends the bulk of the season in Detroit.
As far as free agency goes the three guys I’d be most interested in seeing Detroit sign would be Brian Rolston, Matt Cooke and Alex Auld. I think there’s a good chance Detroit signs Rolston, I have no idea if they’ll target Cooke, and I doubt Auld would agree to the two-way contract Detroit will want for the free agent goaltender they sign.
alex auld Andreas Lilja Brad Stuart brian rolston Jonathan Ericsson matt cooke Red WingsMLIVE’s Ansar Khan writes what most have suspected: Dallas Drake is going to go out on top and retire from the NHL.
Drake, as expected, has told the Detroit Red Wings he is leaning toward retirement, general manager Ken Holland said.
The physical left wing provided some much needed abrasiveness, particularly in the playoffs. He had signed a one-year free-agent contract with Detroit last summer because he wanted a good opportunity to win his first championship. The 39-year-old had three goals and three assists in 65 regular season games and appeared in all 22 postseason games, picking up a goal and three assists.
Khan indicates the Wings will either try to find a replacement via free agency or will hope that Tomas Kopecky can continue his development and fill that role in Detroit. I took a look at some of the free agent options for goaltender and forward, so let’s take a look at some of the options for a banger that might be available to Detroit starting on Tuesday at noon.
Tucker is a tough customer and has solid offensive instincts but given his likely salary demands and his game not being a really strong fit for Detroit’s style of play I question whether he’d work well as a Red Wing. But I wasn’t a fan of signing Drake so I could be completely off in my estimation of how Tucker would fit in Detroit.
Darcy Hodichuk is a guy who could be had for a very reasonable salary but he’s had injury problems so he might not be the best piece for the puzzle Ken Holland is trying to assemble. He might be an option late in the summer if no one else is available. Along those same line, Brad Winchster might have caught Detroit’s interest with his physical play during the Western Conference finals. You’ll get absolutely no offense out of him but he’s a guy who can be had for a very reasonable salary.
Matt Cooke seems like the best fit given he could replace Drake on the penalty kill. Ruutu was a nominal participant on the PK in Pittsbugh so he seems to provide less utility despite being paid close to what Cooke made last season. Sean Avery and Martin Lapointe don’t contribute enough on special teams to justify the amount they are likely to earn which will likely be far outside of Detroit’s budget.
Darcy Tucker has good PK numbers but played so sparingly that he was likely spending the majority of his time short-handed against the opponent’s second PP unit. Chris Gratton was in the same boat but put up terrible PK stats in Tampa. Detroit can do better for the amount of money Gratton might garner on the free market.
Darcy Hordichuk and Brad Winchester don’t contribute on the PK but are both reasonable salary-wise so they might be options later in the summer if the Red Wings can’t fill Drake’s role before then.
brad winchester chris gratton Dallas Drake darcy hordichuk darcy tucker jarkko ruutu Martin Lapointe matt cooke Red Wings Sean AveryHere’s the latest from MLIVE’s Ansar Khan:
The Red Wings are trying to convince Stuart to take less than what he could get on the open market. He was offered a multiyear deal at slightly less than the $3.5 million he earned last season.
“I’ve sold everybody on a certain philosophy and the way we do business and I have to continue to do that,” Holland said. “In my conversations with (agent) Pat Brisson, they want to buy into the program. It’s all about finding a number. They got some numbers in mind, I got some numbers. We’ll see if something comes of it.”
It sounds like Detroit is offering a multi-year deal that is in the neighborhood of what he made last year on a one-year contract but that doesn’t seem to be enough to get Stuart to sign on the dotted line. I think it’s worth taking a look back at the contract negoatiations last year for Todd Bertuzzi and Mathieu Schneider and see where those were at prior to both players being snapped up by Anaheim.
Here’s an excerpt from an article from June 23, 2007:
Wings general manager Ken Holland said he’s not close to signing any of the team’s free agents because their salary demands are too high. He’s talked to the agents for goaltender Dominik Hasek, defensemen Mathieu Schneider and Danny Markov and forward Todd Bertuzzi in the last couple of days and said he’ll have to make some “hard decisions.”
“It appears one or two are not going to be in Detroit,” Holland said. “I got to figure out which direction we’re going to go.”
One or two? Try three. Hasek was obviously the lone guy to return for this season and even he didn’t make it official until well into the summer.
So the suggestion that Stuart is inclined to “buy into the program” is a good sign. Dom had the Red Wings in a tough position as they obviously didn’t know that Chris Osgood would be able to perform as well as he did this season. So Dom was likely the one guy Ken Holland was willing to go outside his budget for last summer and pay up to bring Hasek back for one more season. It remains to be seen how much outside of Holland’s budget Stuart’s salary demands are.
Not meeting those salary demands for the other players last summer was obviously the right decision as Brian Rafalski proved to be an excellent replacement for Schneider, Markov headed off to Russia since he couldn’t find any takers in the NHL, and Todd Bertuzzi is in the process of being bought out by the Anaheim Ducks. Heck, the Ducks might have to trade Schneider so they can fit the last year of Scott Niedermayer’s contract into their cap and attempt to sign RFA Corey Perry.
Speaking of Anaheim, it’s great that they have some serious cap issues for the simple fact they’d be likely to offer Stuart like $6 million per season. It’s not farfetched as they signed Todd Bertuzzi for $4 million per season. Sure, the Schneider and Bertuzzi signings were made in case Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer retired, but that’s still freaking retarded money to pay for Bert.